Atmospheric Moisture Residence Times and Cycling: Implications for Rainfall Rates and Climate Change   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  

Kevin E. Trenberth 《Climatic change》1998,39(4):667-694

New estimates of the moistening of the atmosphere through evaporation at the surface and of the drying through precipitation are computed. Overall, the e-folding residence time of atmospheric moisture is just over 8 days. New estimates are also made of how much moisture that precipitates out comes from horizontal transport versus local evaporation, referred to as recycling. The results depend greatly on the scale of the domain under consideration and global maps of the recycling for annual means are produced for 500 km scales for which global recycling is 9.6%, consisting of 8.9% over land and 9.9% over the oceans. Even for 1000 km scales, less than 20% of the annual precipitation typically comes from evaporation within the domain. While average overall atmospheric moisture depletion and restoration must balance, precipitation falls only a small fraction of the time. Thus precipitation rates are also examined. Over the United States, one hour intervals with 0.1 mm or more are used to show that the frequency of precipitation ranges from over 30% in the Northwest, to about 20% in the Southeast and less than 4% just east of the continental divide in winter, and from less than 2% in California to over 20% in the Southeast in summer. In midlatitudes precipitation typically falls about 10% of the time, and so rainfall rates, conditional on when rain is falling, are much larger than evaporation rates. The mismatches in the rates of rainfall versus evaporation imply that precipitating systems of all kinds feed mostly on the moisture already in the atmosphere. Over North America, much of the precipitation originates from moisture advected from the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical Atlantic or Pacific a day or so earlier. Increases in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere produce global warming through an increase in downwelling infrared radiation, and thus not only increase surface temperatures but also enhance the hydrological cycle, as much of the heating at the surface goes into evaporating surface moisture. Global temperature increases signify that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases and, together with enhanced evaporation, this means that the actual atmospheric moisture should increase. It follows that naturally-occurring droughts are likely to be exacerbated by enhanced potential evapotranspiration. Further, globally there must be an increase in precipitation to balance the enhanced evaporation but the processes by which precipitation is altered locally are not well understood. Observations confirm that atmospheric moisture is increasing in many places, for example at a rate of about 5% per decade over the United States. Based on the above results, we argue that increased moisture content of the atmosphere therefore favors stronger rainfall or snowfall events, thus increasing risk of flooding, which is a pattern observed to be happening in many parts of the world. Moreover, because there is a disparity between the rates of increase of atmospheric moisture and precipitation, there are implied changes in the frequency of precipitation and/or efficiency of precipitation (related to how much moisture is left behind in a storm). However, an analysis of linear trends in the frequency of precipitation events for the United States corresponding to thresholds of 0.1 and 1 mm/h shows that the most notable statistically significant trends are for increases in the southern United States in winter and decreases in the Pacific Northwest from November through January, which may be related to changes in atmospheric circulation and storm tracks associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation trends. It is suggested that as the physical constraints on precipitation apply only globally, more attention should be paid to rates in both observations and models as well as the frequency of occurrence.  相似文献   

Solute Changes During Aquifer Storage Recovery Testing in a Limestone/Clastic Aquifer   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

June E. Mirecki  Bruce G. Campbell  Kevin J. Conlon  Matthew D. Petkewich 《Ground water》1998,36(3):394-403

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Sea level,climate change and coastal evolution in Morar,northwest Scotland     

Shennan  Ian  Tooley  Michael  Green  Frances  Innes  Jim  Kennington  Kevin  Lloyd  Jeremy  Rutherford  Mairead 《Geologie en Mijnbouw》1998,77(3-4):247-262

Analyses of geomorphologically contrasting sites in Morar, NW Scotland, describe the forcing mechanisms of coastal change. Isolation basins (i.e. basins behind rock sills and now isolated from the sea following isostatic uplift) accumulated continuous marine and freshwater sediments from c.12 to 2 ka BP. Raised dune, marsh and wetland sites register breaching, migration and stability of dunes from c. 9 to 2 ka BP. High-resolution methods designed to address issues of macroscale and microscale sea-level changes and patterns of storminess include 1-mm sampling for pollen, dinocyst and diatom analyses, infra-red photography, X-ray photography and thin-section analysis. The data enhance the record of relative sea-level change for the area. Major phases of landward migration of the coast occurred during the period of low sea-level rise in the mid-Holocene as the rate of rise decreased from c. 3 to < 1 mm/year. Relative sea-level change controls the broad pattern of coastal evolution at each site; local site-specific factors contribute to short-term process change. There is no record of extreme events such as tsunami. Within a system of dynamic metastable equilibrium, the Holocene records show that site-specific factors determine the exact timing of system breakdown, e.g. dune breaching, superimposed on regional sea-level rise. The global average sea-level rise of 3 to 6 mm/yr by AD 2050 predicted by IPCC would only partly be offset in the Morar area by isostatic uplift of about 1 mm/yr. A change from relative sea-level fall to sea-level rise, in areas where the regional rate of uplift no longer offsets global processes, is a critical factor in the management of coastal resources.  相似文献   

Resonant tidal disruption in galactic nuclei     

Kevin P. Rauch  & Brian Ingalls 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,299(4):1231-1241

It has recently been shown by Rauch 38 Tremaine that the rate of angular momentum relaxation in nearly Keplerian star clusters is greatly increased by a process termed 'resonant relaxation'; it was also argued, via a series of scaling arguments, that tidal disruption of stars in galactic nuclei containing massive black holes could be noticeably enhanced by this process. We describe here the results of numerical simulations of resonant tidal disruption which quantitatively test the predictions made by Rauch 38 Tremaine. The simulation method is based on an N -body routine incorporating cloning of stars near the loss cone and a semirelativistic symplectic integration scheme. Normalized disruption rates for resonant and non-resonant nuclei are derived at orbital energies both above and below the critical energy, and the corresponding angular momentum distribution functions are found. The black hole mass above which resonant tidal disruption is quenched by relativistic precession is determined. We also briefly describe the discovery of chaos in the Wisdom–Holman symplectic integrator applied to highly eccentric orbits and propose a modified integration scheme that remains robust under these conditions. We find that resonant disruption rates exceed their non-resonant counterparts by an amount consistent with the predictions; in particular, we estimate the net tidal disruption rate for a fully resonant cluster to be about twice that of its non-resonant counterpart. No significant enhancement in rates is observed outside the critical radius. Relativistic quenching of the effect is found to occur for hole masses M  >  M _Q  = (8 ± 3) × 10⁷  M . The numerical results combined with the observed properties of galactic nuclei indicate that for most galaxies the resonant enhancement to tidal disruption rates will be very small.  相似文献   

The use of principle component analyses in characterising trace and major elemental distribution in a 55 kyr peat deposit in tropical Australia: Implications to paleoclimate     

Joanne Muller  Malin Kylander  Antonio Martinez-Cortizas  Dominik Weiss  Kevin Blake  Raquel Garcia-Sanchez 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2008,72(2):449-463

The Lynch’s Crater peat deposit in NE-Australia is a sensitive environmental archive located in the tropical Southern Hemisphere. This unique deposit illustrates that local and regional changes had a profound effect on the local Australian ecosystem over the past 55 kyr. To obtain a proxy of past climate changes, trace and major element geochemistry analyses were applied to a 13 m peat core from the crater. Principle component analysis (PCA) was used to identify the main factors that control elemental distribution in the peat and to add interpretative strength to the geochemical behavior of selected major and trace elements. For example, Sc, Al, Cu, and Pb were found to be related to increased erosion of the basin soils, and from this, several periods of significant flux from atmospheric input and/or terrigenous run-off were identified. Geochemically mobile elements during rock weathering and pedogenesis, such as Mg, Ca, and Sr helped to identify the peat ombrotrophic-minerotrophic boundary at ∼1.5 m depth and offered important information about fluxes of these nutrients to the mire and their dynamics within the deposit. Arsenic and V comparisons between the peat record (high concentrations in some peat sections) and in local basin rocks (very low concentrations), suggested the presence of a long range, atmospheric dust source early in the formation of the mire. The Lynch’s Crater peat record presents a continuous record of environmental change in tropical Australia and contributes new understanding to geochemical processes in peatlands.  相似文献   

High resolution paleoenvironmental and chronological investigations of Norse landnám at Tasiusaq, Eastern Settlement, Greenland     

Kevin J. Edwards  J. Edward Schofield 《Quaternary Research》2008,69(1):1-15

High-resolution paleoenvironmental data from a peat profile with a small pollen source area are used to reconstruct the impacts of landnám on vegetation and soils at a Norse farm complex (∅2 at Tasiusaq) comprising two farms in the Eastern Settlement of Greenland. Analyses include the AMS ¹⁴C dating of plant macrofossil samples and the use of Bayesian radiocarbon calibration to construct improved age-depth models for Norse cultural horizons. The onset of a regional landnám may be indicated by the clearance of Betula pubescens woodland immediately prior to local settlement. The latter is dated to AD 950-1020 (2σ) and is characterised by possible burning of Betula glandulosa scrub to provide grassland pasture for domestic stock. Clearance and grazing resulted in accelerated levels of soil erosion at a westerly farm. This was followed by an easterly migration of settlement and agriculture. Site constraints prevent an assessment of the demise of the easterly farm, but pressures of overgrazing and land degradation may have been the major factors responsible for the abandonment of the earlier farm.  相似文献   

Trace Element Partitioning and Accessory Phase Saturation during H2O-Saturated Melting of Basalt with Implications for Subduction Zone Chemical Fluxes   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Klimm  Kevin; Blundy  Jon D.; Green  Trevor H. 《Journal of Petrology》2008,49(3):523-553

Experimental phase equilibrium and trace element partitioningdata are reported for H₂O-saturated mid-ocean ridge basalt at2·5 GPa, 750–900°C and oxygen fugacities atthe nickel–nickel oxide buffer. Garnet, omphacite andrutile are present at all temperatures. Amphibole and epidotedisappear as residual phases above 800°C; allanite appearsabove 750°C. The Na–Al-rich silicate glass presentin all run products is likely to have quenched from a supercriticalliquid. Trace element analyses of glasses demonstrate the importantcontrol exerted by residual minerals on liquid chemistry. Inaddition to garnet, which controls heavy rare earth elements(HREE) and Sc, and rutile, which controls Ti, Nb and Ta, allanitebuffers the light REE (LREE; La–Sm) contents of liquidsto relatively low levels and preferentially holds back Th relativeto U. In agreement with previous experimental and metamorphicstudies we propose that residual allanite plays a key role inselectively retaining trace elements in the slab during subduction.Experimental data and analyses of allanite-bearing volcanicrocks are used to derive a model for allanite solubility inliquids as a function of pressure, temperature, anhydrous liquidcomposition and LREE content. The large temperature dependenceof allanite solubility is very similar to that previously determinedfor monazite. Our model, fitted to 48 datapoints, retrievesLREE solubility (in ppm) to within a factor of 1· 40over a pressure range of 0–4 GPa, temperature range of700–1200°C and for liquids with anhydrous SiO₂ contentsof 50–84 wt %. This uncertainty in LREE content is equivalentto a temperature uncertainty of only ± 27°C at 1000K, indicating the potential of allanite as a geothermometer.Silicic liquids from either basaltic or sedimentary protolithswill be saturated in allanite except for Ca-poor protolithsor at very high temperatures. For conventional subduction geothermsthe low solubility of LREE (+ Th) in liquids raises questionsabout the mechanism of LREE + Th transport from slab to wedge.It is suggested either that, locally, temperatures experiencedby the slab are high enough to eliminate allanite in the residueor that substantial volumes of H₂O-rich fluids must pass throughthe mantle wedge prior to melting. The solubility of accessoryphases in fluids derived from subducted rocks can provide importantconstraints on subduction zone thermal structure. KEY WORDS: subduction; experimental petrology; allanite; solubility; supercritical liquid; eclogite  相似文献   

Urban consolidation and house prices: a case study of Melbourne 1990–2004     

Sun Sheng Han  Kevin O’Connor 《GeoJournal》2008,73(4):285-295

This paper explores the links between a strategic policy, urban consolidation, and house prices by examining the changes in the mix of housing and in house price for the period 1991–2004. We contend that urban consolidation could be seen as a source of additional supply, (which might be expected to be felt in lower prices and so contribute to a local policy objective) but also as a stimulus to demand (by developers who could bid up the price of lots where it was understood more housing could be built). Analyses were carried out at the metropolitan and sub-regional scales using correlation tests. The research finds very weak statistical connections, and concludes that this policy has not been associated with price changes.  相似文献   

Another Year of Record Heat for the Oceans     

Lijing CHENG  John ABRAHAM  Kevin E.TRENBERTH  John FASULLO  Tim BOYER  Michael E.MANN  Jiang ZHU  Fan WANG  Ricardo LOCARNINI  Yuanlong LI  Bin ZHANG  Fujiang YU  Liying WAN  Xingrong CHEN  Licheng Feng  Xiangzhou SONG  Yulong LIU  Franco RESEGHETTI  Simona SIMONCELLI  Viktor GOURETSKI  Gengxin CHEN  Alexey MISHONOV  Jim REAGAN  Guancheng LI 《大气科学进展》2023,40(6):963-974

Changes in ocean heat content(OHC), salinity, and stratification provide critical indicators for changes in Earth’s energy and water cycles. These cycles have been profoundly altered due to the emission of greenhouse gasses and other anthropogenic substances by human activities, driving pervasive changes in Earth’s climate system. In 2022, the world’s oceans, as given by OHC, were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum.According to IAP/CAS data, ...  相似文献   

Mapping sediment acoustic impedance using remote sensing acoustic techniques in a shallow-water carbonate environment     

Donald J. Walter  Douglas N. Lambert  David C. Young  Kevin P. Stephens 《Geo-Marine Letters》1997,17(4):260-267

 Real-time trackline plots of surficial sediment acoustic impedance delineate several sedimentary facies off Garden Key in the Dry Tortugas. The sea floor within a 6×6 km surveyed area consists of carbonate muds (silts), sands and shell, rock, and live corals. The 4-kHz acoustic data supports this finding by providing a pictographic representation of the distribution and structure of several sediment facies types. Plotting the gridded acoustic data with commercial mapping software (Surfer) provides a three-dimensional (3D) perspective of the bottom topography with a color contour map of surficial sediment impedance (upper 0.4 m) draped over the 3D surface.  相似文献